When addressing North Korea’s challenges, it is crucial to approach the threat presented by the nation with an informed perspective rooted in clear strategic reasoning, rather than relying on simplified misinterpretations of its leadership. North Korea has recently foreshadowed retaliation against the United States as well as South Korea, claiming the threats are “not empty.”
This rings particularly accurate as northeastern Asia hovers on the edge of a potential conflict that might spiral beyond anyone’s jurisdiction. It is not only a serious matter to consider, but one that will have profound consequences for international security and stability.
Kim Jong is at it again
The most critical aspect of any policy involving North Korea is to understand how and why the regime views hard military power as the only way to ensure its survival. This is the key to understanding why it has developed nuclear weapons and long-range missiles — it sees them as crucial tools for defending itself from the overwhelming retaliation it would receive from its regional allies should it decide to attack them with a first-strike nuclear weapons strike.
In order to understand the unique strategic logic of the North Korean regime, we must also learn about its history and its political culture. Unfortunately, this is not easy.
is North Korea a real threat?
For starters, we must understand that North Korea’s political system is a dictatorship. This means that a large share of its power is based on coercion and oppression, which has been used to control the people’s lives through surveillance, social controls and ideological indoctrination since its establishment in 1948.
To understand the underlying logic of the regime’s foreign policy, we must also take into account its domestic human rights abuses and internal social unrest. These are all part of an authoritarian system that has been in place for decades, and it is not surprising that North Korean leaders have taken steps to protect themselves from retaliation.
But we must remember that the regime also sees a need for nuclear weapons to defend itself against an overwhelming retaliation from its regional allies, and that a first-strike nuclear weapon would invite a devastating retaliation by the US or its regional allies — a development that the North Korean leadership is highly aware of.
Should South Korea prepare for a civil war?
This is why it is so important to understand the context of North Korea’s long-range missiles — a context that most media outlets ignore when they show maps of concentric rings that illustrate their operational range.
We should also bear in mind that North Korea’s leadership is overwhelmingly concerned with survival, which leads to its adherence to hard military power as the only reliable way of guaranteeing its survival. This is the reason why it has developed nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles — it sees them as the only tools to secure itself against an overwhelming retaliation.
We should also bear in mind that North Korea’s political system is based on coercion and oppression, and this is a very rational way for authoritarian rulers to run their institutions and maintain power over the population. This is why it is so important to understand that the regime’s foreign policy is a rational one — it is largely driven by a desire to preserve its power and security, rather than to increase its wealth.
