Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a stark warning to the United States, signaling a significant shift in Russia’s nuclear policy. His warning comes as tensions between Russia and Ukraine are worsening amid the U.S.’s recent greenlight for Ukraine to use U.S.-made missiles to strike deep into Russian territory.
On Tuesday, Mr Putin signed into law an updated nuclear doctrine that lowers the threshold for a nuclear strike. The new framework spells out, for the first time, in considerable detail the conditions under which Russia might use its vast nuclear arsenal.
Analysts say the shift is of particular concern, as it would mean now Russia could consider a conventional attack on its or its ally Belarus’s territory as, into a reason for a nuclear response. The doctrine states that such attacks may create a “critical threat” to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Russia.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the move underlines the “inevitability of retaliation” should Russia feel its sovereignty is in jeopardy. That warning has coincided with some of the longest-range strikes on targets deepest behind the front line in Ukraine.
This comes after reports that Ukraine is successfully hitting well inside Russian territory. The U.S. decision to provide Ukraine with longer-range missiles had been an issue of hot debate; Russia had previously warned that such actions on the part of Kiev’s Western allies would be viewed as direct involvement by NATO countries in the conflict. The international community is now on high alert for any development that could reshape the dynamics of the ongoing war.
The new nuclear doctrine also extends the definition of a mass attack against Russia by way of aircraft, cruise missiles, and drones. So, the update seems to be largely emblematic of their more aggressive stance in the rising tide of global tensions.
This is against a grim backdrop of the most alarming development sired from the ongoing war in Ukraine, which reached its 1,000th day. The conflict swaggered with the Ukrainian army launching six missiles on Tuesday into the Bryansk region; air defenses intercepted five of them, according to Russia’s defence ministry. What Russian officials see as a catastrophic uptick in the West’s involvement in the war.
Putin’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, blamed the U.S. for the attacks, claiming American personnel and intelligence were involved in the missile strikes. Remarks by Lavrov underlined the Kremlin belief that the West was directly involved in hostilities against Russia, adding to an already complicating picture.
To understand how serious it is to get such a warning from Putin, one needs to look back at the historical development in this matter of nuclear threats between the U.S. and Russia. During the Cold War, both sides were in an arms race, massively building up their nuclear armaments. It was at this time that nuclear weapons brought the world close to war, with the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, after which both superpowers had to rethink their strategies.
This was the birth of the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction, wherein both sides kept the largest arsenals to deter a first strike by each other. Through the years, various arms control agreements were made in the hope of curtailing the proliferation of nuclear weapons with a view to decreasing tensions between nations.
However, these events of recent times, coupled with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and sustained fighting in Ukraine, have given rise to current fears of fears of nuclear escalation across Europe.
It is little wonder that alarm has been expressed worldwide; and it does nothing at all to alter the unease about where the new policy may lead. The update to the doctrine is “deeply concerning”, said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, confirming the alliance’s commitment to defensive measures. China, a close ally of Russia, calls for restraint from both sides «to create conditions that will prevent further actions and steps that will increase tension even more».
The risk of nuclear conflict, though relatively low, is higher now than at any time since the Cold War, experts have warned. “The broadening of the conditions for nuclear strikes is a dangerous gamble,” said Dr Elena Morozov, a leading expert on security issues. “It opens the door for misunderstandings and overreactions.”
As the world watches with hawklike attention, the implications go deep because, in effect and essence, Putin warns that the new nuclear doctrine represents a more incendiary posture from Russia with ever-higher risks of miscalculation. These are turbulent waters the international community needs to navigate with utmost care to avoid a situation which no one knows could spiral out of control.
